CMHC Housing Market Outlook: Greater Vancouver

CMHC, like most forecasters, is conservatively projecting a slowdown over the next year due primarily to rising interest rates. They predicted essentially the same thing a year ago:·      
  • MLS® sales are forecast by CMHC to reach 38,400 transactions in 2016 and 37,400 in 2017 (compared to actual sales of 35,975 for the first 10 months of 2015). One year ago, CMHC forecast 32,250 sales in all of 2015.·      
  • The pace of growth in the MLS® average selling price is forecast to moderate, increasing 3% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017 (compared to about 15% in the past 12 months). CMHC predicted one year ago that housing prices would enjoy “modest increases” in 2015, with most of the gains in lower-priced properties.·      
  • CMHC predicts interest rates will start to rise in late 2016. A year ago, they forecast rates would start to rise in late 2015.
Sources: CMHC, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver